Tropical Cyclone Outlook
RSMC Nadi
Key Messages
- Five to six Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are likely in the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi-Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi-TCC) Area of Responsibility (AoR) between November 2024 to April 2025.
- On average, around seven TCs affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR a season. Thus, this season is predicted to have near average or below average TC activity.
- Around four TCs per season on average affect west of the Dateline in the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR and around three to the east. This season, two to five TCs are likely to affect west of the Dateline, which means near average or above average TC risk. To the east, two to three TCs are likely, which is a below average risk.
- Three severe TCs, that is, Category 3 or higher intensity, on average affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR a season. This season is likely to have one to two severe TCs, which is a below average risk.
- One to two severe (1-2) TCs are likely to the west of Dateline (long-term average is 2), which is near average risk. On the other hand, zero to one (0-1) severe TCs are likely to the east of Dateline (long-term average is 2), which is a below average risk.
- While the TC season in the region is between November and April, occasionally cyclones have formed in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, out of season TCs cannot be ruled out.
- The peak TC season in the RMSC-Nadi TCC AoR is usually between January to March, but TCs can form at any time throughout the season.
RSMC Nadi
Key Messages
- Five to six Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are likely in the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi-Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi-TCC) Area of Responsibility (AoR) between November 2024 to April 2025.
- On average, around seven TCs affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR a season. Thus, this season is predicted to have near average or below average TC activity.
- Around four TCs per season on average affect west of the Dateline in the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR and around three to the east. This season, two to five TCs are likely to affect west of the Dateline, which means near average or above average TC risk. To the east, two to three TCs are likely, which is a below average risk.
- Three severe TCs, that is, Category 3 or higher intensity, on average affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR a season. This season is likely to have one to two severe TCs, which is a below average risk.
- One to two severe (1-2) TCs are likely to the west of Dateline (long-term average is 2), which is near average risk. On the other hand, zero to one (0-1) severe TCs are likely to the east of Dateline (long-term average is 2), which is a below average risk.
- While the TC season in the region is between November and April, occasionally cyclones have formed in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, out of season TCs cannot be ruled out.
- The peak TC season in the RMSC-Nadi TCC AoR is usually between January to March, but TCs can form at any time throughout the season.
Fiji
Key Messages
- One to two tropical cyclones (TCs) are likely to pass through Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone during the 2024-25 TC season.
- Of these, one TC is likely to reach severe Category (Category 3-5).
- There is equal risk of TCs affecting any part of the Fiji Group.
- While the peak TC activities are usually from January to February, TCs can form at any time during the season. Out of season TCs cannot be ruled out.
- It does not take a direct hit or a severe TC to cause considerable damage or life-threatening weather. Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain TC intensity can and have previously caused strong winds/gusts, widespread heavy rainfall, landslides and flooding.
- All communities should remain alert and prepared throughout the TC season and take heed of all advisories whenever it is issued.
Detailed Outlook
January 7, 2025